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It is a common misconception that flush is more likely to hit. If you also believe that to be the case, then you are wrong. Well, maybe you are right, but it depends on which perspective you look at it. Let me explain.

As long as you start counting the hand from preflop, then you will hit the straight more often than flush. But if you have a flush draw on flop or turn, then you will hit a flush more often compared to when you have an open-ended straight draw, and you hit a straight.

There is a reason why flush has a higher ranking in poker than straight. It will hit less often. Look at this chance to win a straight and to hit a flush – from Wikipedia.

The primary reason for this page was to assist with bad beat probabilities in a two-player game, for example the Bad Beat Bonus in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em. For example, if you wish to know the probability of a particular player getting a full house and losing to a four of a kind, we can see from table 7 that there are 966,835,584 such combinations. In Texas Hold’em a hand where aces, kings and queens pair up preflop is very rare. At a 9 player table this scenario unfolds roughly every 17,000 hands. The odds are 1:16,830 and the probability is 0.006%. Queens does happen every now and then, for example during this hand at the Bike. If you have an inside (or gutshot) straight draw, you have 4 outs because you need just one specific card value and there are 4 of each card value in the deck. Double that to get an 8% chance to hit the straight on the turn and multiply it by 4 to get a 16% chance to hit it by the river.

These conditions mean that there are nine straight flushes of a given suit. Since there are four different suits, this makes 4 x 9 = 36 total straight flushes. Therefore the probability of a straight flush is 36/2,598,960 = 0.0014%. This is approximately equivalent to 1/72193. The royal flush is a case of the straight flush. It can be formed 4 ways (one for each suit), giving it a probability of 0.000154% and odds of 649,739: 1. When ace-low straights and ace-low straight flushes are not counted, the probabilities of each are reduced: straights and straight flushes each become 9/10 as common as they otherwise would be.

You will hit a flush every 0.20% of the time. So once every 509 hands. While you will hit a straight about 0.40% of the time or once every 255 hands, so you will hit almost 2 straights for every 1 flush that you hit.Table of Contents

Why is it easier to make a flush than astraight?

But after all that I have written, why is it easier to hit a flush than a straight?
Well postflop, if you hold a flush draw, you have more outs to hit the draw than holding the open-ended straight draw and hitting the straight. You will have 9 outs to hit a flush on the flop or turn if you have a flush draw.
From flop to the river, we have 9 outs twice to hit a flush, which is roughly 38%, from turn to the river we have about 18% (9 outs once). On the other hand, if you hold an open-ended straight draw, you will have only 8 outs to hit it.

What many people are forgetting is that you will get the flush draw less often than you will open-ended straight draw. Getting a suited hand preflop doesn’t happen super often. You will have a flush draw on the flop only 5.1% of the time.

One thing that is often neglected is you not accounting in the times when you have a gutshot, and you hit it. It seems it doesn’t happen often, but you will usually have 4 outs to hit a straight, which is around 16% from flop to river. Not something we should forget about. On top of that, there are also some double gutters, which also gives you 8 outs to hit your straight.

So only looking from the postflop perspective, it can feel that it is easier to hit a flush than a straight, but as I explained, that can often be misleading. Straight will happen more often.

Let’s say you usually play connectors and therefore your chances to hit your straight draw increase. You would have flopped 8 outs straight draw (either open-ended or a double gutter straight draw) about 10.5% of the time on the flop.

How often will an opponent flop a flush draw?

A player will have a flush draw on the flop about 5.1% of the time strictly math speaking and accounting in all the hands. But we know that players don’t play every single hand, and they are more likely to fold more off suited hand than suited hands preflop.

All this makes an opponent hit a flush draw roughly 10% of the time on the flop.

Which makes more money: Flush vs. straight?

As expected, flush will make you more money. In my case, not double the amount, but you will make more money with it. Why not the double, you might wonder? Well, if you have a straight, usually you will be willing to stack off with top straight or second nut straight sometimes 3^rd nut straight. But when it comes to flush, you will lose quite some money even if you hold a low flush, and it can be less than 3^rd nuts. On top of that, not many players will be willing to stack off with the top two or a set on a possible flush board, while the same players don’t have a problem committing with the same hands on possible straight board.

All this reduces your winrate by a little. But you, as you can see from my graph, will still make substantially more profit with a flush compared to straight. They are both great hands; it is just that a flush is stronger.

Now your winrate will, of course, differ a bit. If you have nut flush yo will win more than my 2,000bb/100 hands. If you have a lower flush, then it will be lower. Now sometimes higher flushes will beat us. A scenario of when we hit a flush, and our opponent also hits a flush is not that uncommon, and if you multi table, it will happen on semi-frequent occasions.

The same goes for a straight. Nut straight will give you the most money of any straight. You will still make decent money with 2^nd nut straight, just less.

Scenarios, where we hit backdoor straight, will be nicely profitable since it will be harder for an opponent to put us on a straight, as there was no apparent straight draw present when we started betting on the flop. If you want to read more about straight backdoor draws, I have this article I have for you.

What are the odds of getting straight flush?

Odds of hitting a straight flush is so low that it almost doesn’t make sense to write it in percentages. It is a 0.00139% chance you will hit a straight flush. This is 72,192:1 odds against hitting it. SO only once every 72,000 hands you will hit the second most powerful hand in poker.

What are the odds of getting a royal flush?

Hitting a royal flush is even harder than a straight flush. The royal flush is the strongest hand you can get in poker. Your chances of hitting it are 0.000154% of the time, or once every650,000 hands (odds against of 649,740:1 to be precise).

I have been dealt quite many royal flushes in my poker career, and frankly, hitting one doesn’t feel special anymore. But I remember that when I hit it for the first time, I was ecstatic for some time. That is how rare the royal flush is.

Does a straight beat a flush?

Poker hand rankings go from strongest to weakest:

1. Royal flush
2. Straight flush
3. Four of a kind
4. Full house
5. Flush
6. Straight
7. Three of a kind
8. Two pair
9. One pair
10. No pair (high card)

You can see that straight doesn’t beat a flush, but it does beat many other hands, making it a powerful hand on right boards. When the board is not paired, and no flush can be present, then if you hold the highest straight, you will have the best hand.

What are the odds of getting pocket aces?

Chances of being dealt pocket aces are slightly less than 0.5%. Exactly once every 221 hands, you will get the rockets. The number of players on the table doesn’t matter. There are still 52 cards in the deck, no matter how many players are at the table.

If you wonder how often you can expect to win with AA depending on the number of opponents and different hands you are up against, then read this post.

What are the odds of an ace flop?

We all know it, that horrible feeling when you hope ace doesn’t show up on the flop, but it seems like it always does. It doesn’t always come. But you will see ace on the flop 42% of the time, which is quite often. But don’t worry on some occasions you will also hit two flushes, sets or straights yourself. That is why pocket kings have around 70% (and not only 58%) to win against Ax.

Introduction

This page examines the probabilities of each final hand of an arbitrary player, referred to as player two, given the poker value of the hand of the other player, referred to as player one. Combinations shown are out of a possible combin(52,5)×combin(47,2)×combin(45,2) = 2,781,381,002,400. The primary reason for this page was to assist with bad beat probabilities in a two-player game, for example the Bad Beat Bonus in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em.

For example, if you wish to know the probability of a particular player getting a full house and losing to a four of a kind, we can see from table 7 that there are 966,835,584 such combinations. The same table shows us that given that player one has a full house, the probability of losing to a four of a kind is 0.013390. To get the probability before any cards are dealt, divide 966,835,584 by the total possible combinations of 2,781,381,002,400, which yields 0.0002403.

Table 1 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has less than a pair.

Table 1 — First Player has Less than Pair

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	164,934,908,760	0.340569
Pair	228,994,769,160	0.472845
Two pair	43,652,558,880	0.090137
Three of a kind	7,303,757,580	0.015081
Straight	26,248,866,180	0.054201
Flush	13,060,678,788	0.026969
Full house	-	0.000000
Four of a kind	-	0.000000
Straight flush	85,751,460	0.000177
Royal flush	10,532,592	0.000022
Total	484,291,823,400	1.000000

Table 2 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a pair.

Table 2 — First Player has a Pair

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	228,994,769,160	0.187874
Pair	574,484,133,960	0.471324
Two pair	270,127,833,552	0.221621
Three of a kind	47,736,401,832	0.039164
Straight	50,797,137,096	0.041676
Flush	30,076,271,352	0.024675
Full house	15,829,506,000	0.012987
Four of a kind	586,278,000	0.000481
Straight flush	214,250,184	0.000176
Royal flush	25,380,864	0.000021
Total	1,218,871,962,000	1.000000

Table 3 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a two pair.

Table 3 — First Player has a Two Pair

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	43,652,558,880	0.066798
Pair	270,127,833,552	0.413355
Two pair	246,286,292,328	0.376872
Three of a kind	31,155,189,408	0.047674
Straight	18,549,991,152	0.028386
Flush	14,200,694,712	0.021730
Full house	28,751,944,680	0.043997
Four of a kind	653,378,400	0.001000
Straight flush	109,829,304	0.000168
Royal flush	12,673,584	0.000019
Total	653,500,386,000	1.000000

Table 4 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a three of a kind.

Table 4 — First Player has a Three of a Kind

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	7,303,757,580	0.054369
Pair	47,736,401,832	0.355348
Two pair	31,155,189,408	0.231918
Three of a kind	27,586,332,384	0.205352
Straight	3,310,535,196	0.024643
Flush	2,606,403,900	0.019402
Full house	12,910,316,760	0.096104
Four of a kind	1,705,867,680	0.012698
Straight flush	19,970,844	0.000149
Royal flush	2,304,216	0.000017
Total	134,337,079,800	1.000000

Texas Holdem Straight Flush Probability Chart

Table 5 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a straight.

Table 5 — First Player has a Straight

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	26,248,866,180	0.204299
Pair	50,797,137,096	0.395362
Two pair	18,549,991,152	0.144377
Three of a kind	3,310,535,196	0.025766
Straight	25,219,094,136	0.196284
Flush	3,229,836,828	0.025138
Full house	975,510,000	0.007593
Four of a kind	43,198,800	0.000336
Straight flush	98,961,348	0.000770
Royal flush	9,485,064	0.000074
Total	128,482,615,800	1.000000

Table 6 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a flush.

Table 6 — First Player has a Flush

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	13,060,678,788	0.155206
Pair	30,076,271,352	0.357410
Two pair	14,200,694,712	0.168754
Three of a kind	2,606,403,900	0.030973
Straight	3,229,836,828	0.038382
Flush	19,608,838,592	0.233021
Full house	1,102,206,960	0.013098
Four of a kind	50,221,200	0.000597
Straight flush	191,762,164	0.002279
Royal flush	23,604,264	0.000281
Total	84,150,518,760	1.000000

Table 7 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a full house.

Table 7 — First Player has a Full House

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	-	0.000000
Pair	15,829,506,000	0.219222
Two pair	28,751,944,680	0.398185
Three of a kind	12,910,316,760	0.178795
Straight	975,510,000	0.013510
Flush	1,102,206,960	0.015264
Full house	11,661,414,336	0.161499
Four of a kind	966,835,584	0.013390
Straight flush	8,767,440	0.000121
Royal flush	993,600	0.000014
Total	72,207,495,360	1.000000

Table 8 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a four of a kind.

Table 8 — First Player has a Four of a Kind

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	-	0.000000
Pair	586,278,000	0.125418
Two pair	653,378,400	0.139772
Three of a kind	1,705,867,680	0.364923
Straight	43,198,800	0.009241
Flush	50,221,200	0.010743
Full house	966,835,584	0.206828
Four of a kind	668,375,136	0.142980
Straight flush	390,960	0.000084
Royal flush	44,160	0.000009
Total	4,674,589,920	1.000000

Table 9 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a straight flush.

Table 9 — First Player has a Straight Flush

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	85,751,460	0.110699
Pair	214,250,184	0.276582
Two pair	109,829,304	0.141782
Three of a kind	19,970,844	0.025781
Straight	98,961,348	0.127752
Flush	191,762,164	0.247552
Full house	8,767,440	0.011318
Four of a kind	390,960	0.000505
Straight flush	44,354,840	0.057259
Royal flush	596,856	0.000770
Total	774,635,400	1.000000

Table 10 shows the number of combinations for each hand of a second player, given that the first player has a royal flush.

Table 10 — First Player has a Royal Flush

Event	Pays	Probability
Less than pair	10,532,592	0.117164
Pair	25,380,864	0.282336
Two pair	12,673,584	0.140981
Three of a kind	2,304,216	0.025632
Straight	9,485,064	0.105512
Flush	23,604,264	0.262573
Full house	993,600	0.011053
Four of a kind	44,160	0.000491
Straight flush	596,856	0.006639
Royal flush	4,280,760	0.047619
Total	89,895,960	1.000000

The following table shows the number of combinations for each hand of player 1 by the winner of the hand.

Table 11 — Winning Player by Hand of Player 1 — Combinations

Player 1	Win	Tie	Loss
Less than pair	76,626,795,600	11,681,317,560	395,983,710,240	484,291,823,400
Pair	496,857,988,764	38,757,694,752	683,256,278,484	1,218,871,962,000
Two pair	419,896,266,012	34,054,545,168	199,549,574,820	653,500,386,000
Three of a kind	97,664,829,948	4,647,370,128	32,024,879,724	134,337,079,800
Straight	103,685,076,072	15,662,001,240	9,135,538,488	128,482,615,800
Flush	71,523,195,288	2,910,219,176	9,717,104,296	84,150,518,760
Full house	62,810,500,464	5,179,382,208	4,217,612,688	72,207,495,360
Four of a kind	4,240,864,800	198,204,864	235,520,256	4,674,589,920
Straight flush	734,237,144	35,247,960	5,150,296	774,635,400
Royal flush	85,615,200	4,280,760	-	89,895,960
Total	1,334,125,369,292	113,130,263,816	1,334,125,369,292	2,781,381,002,400

The following table shows the probability for each hand of player 1 by the winner of the hand. The bottom row shows that each player has a 47.97% chance of winning and a 4.07% chance of a tie.

Texas Holdem Royal Flush Odds

Table 12 — Winning Player by Hand of Player 1 — Probabilities

Player 1 Hand	Player 1	Tie	Player 2	Total
Less than pair	0.027550	0.004200	0.142369	0.174119
Pair	0.178637	0.013935	0.245654	0.438225
Two pair	0.150967	0.012244	0.071745	0.234955
Three of a kind	0.035114	0.001671	0.011514	0.048299
Straight	0.037278	0.005631	0.003285	0.046194
Flush	0.025715	0.001046	0.003494	0.030255
Full house	0.022582	0.001862	0.001516	0.025961
Four of a kind	0.001525	0.000071	0.000085	0.001681
Straight flush	0.000264	0.000013	0.000002	0.000279
Royal flush	0.000031	0.000002	0.000000	0.000032
Total	0.479663	0.040674	0.479663	1.000000

Written by: Michael Shackleford